Research page 19 - Ventura Photonics

Summary

Joseph Fourier discussed the temperature of the earth in two similar memoires (reviews) in 1824 and 1827. An important and long neglected part of this work is his description of the time dependence of the surface energy transfer. In particular, he was able to explain the seasonal time delays or phase shifts between the peak solar flux and the subsurface temperature response using his theory of heat published in 1822. This is clear evidence for a non-equilibrium thermal response to the solar flux. Diurnal and seasonal phase shifts occur in both the ocean and land temperature records. These phase shifts provide important additional information about the time dependent energy transfer processes that determine the surface temperature. Unfortunately, starting with the work of Pouillet in 1836, this time dependence was neglected and replaced by an equilibrium average climate. It was assumed, incorrectly that the surface temperature could be determined using average values for just the solar and IR flux terms. This approach created CO₂ induced global warming as a mathematical artifact in simplistic equilibrium air column model used by Arrhenius in 1896. Physical reality was abandoned in favor of mathematical simplicity. The equilibrium assumption is still the foundation of the fraudulent climate models in use today.

The earth is a rotating water planet with an atmosphere that has an IR radiation field. At the surface, the downward LWIR flux from the lower troposphere interacts with the upward LWIR flux from the surface to establish an exchange energy. This limits the net LWIR cooling flux to the emission into the atmospheric LWIR transmission window. In order to dissipate the absorbed solar heat, the surface must warm up so that the excess heat is removed by moist convection (evapotranspiration). The phase shifts occur because it takes time for the heat to flow into and out of the surface layers and change the surface temperature. Over land, the surface heating is localized and almost all of the absorbed solar heat is dissipated within the same diurnal cycle. As the surface cools later in the day, there is a convection transition temperature at which the surface and surface air temperatures equalize. Convection stops and the surface continues to cool more slowly overnight by net LWIR emission. The convection transition temperature is reset each day by the local weather system passing through. Over the oceans, the bulk temperature increases until the excess absorbed solar heat is dissipated by wind driven evaporation (latent heat flux). The upper limit to the ocean surface temperature found in the equatorial warm pools is near 30 °C. In many parts of the world, the prevailing weather systems form over the oceans and then move over land. This couples the ocean surface temperatures to the weather station record through the changes to the convection transition temperature. Both the seasonal phase shift and longer term ocean oscillations are coupled through this process. The dominant term in the global mean temperature record is the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). The 1940 AMO peak has long been ignored in the ‘attribution’ of the observed climate warming to CO₂.

In order to move beyond the pseudoscience of radiative forcings, feedbacks and climate sensitivity to CO₂ it is necessary to follow Fourier and restore the time dependence to the surface energy transfer. A change in flux produces a change in the rate of cooling of a thermal reservoir, not a change in temperature.

Introduction

Joseph Fourier discussed the temperature of the earth in two similar memoires in 1824 and 1827 [Fourier, 1824, 1827]. He correctly described the time dependent heating of the earth’s land surface by the solar flux using his theory of heat [Fourier, 1822]. He also described ocean solar heating and atmospheric cooling by convection. However, he did not use the term ‘greenhouse effect’. Instead he described a solar calorimeter with glass windows that had been developed by Saussure. An important part of Fourier’s work was the description of the seasonal time delay or phase shift in the subsurface heat transfer.

At a moderate depth, as three or four meters, the temperature observed does not vary during each day, but the change is very perceptible in the course of a year, it varies and falls alternately. The extent of these variations, that is, the difference between the maximum and minimum of temperature, is not the same at all depths, it is inversely as the distance from the surface. The different points of the same vertical line do not arrive at the same time at the extreme temperatures. ........... The results observed are in accordance with those furnished by the theory, no phenomenon is more completely explained.

Fourier (1824, p. 144)

This is indisputable evidence for a non-equilibrium thermal response to the solar flux. There is a time delay as heat flows in and out of the ground or the oceans. Such seasonal and diurnal phase shifts have been ignored in climate science for almost 200 years. Similar phase shifts occur in other energy storage devices including capacitors in AC electronic circuits and in optical passive cavity resonators (cavity ringdown) [Clark, 1993].

The phase shifts provide important additional information about the time dependent energy transfer processes that determine the surface temperature. Unfortunately, starting with the work of Pouillet in 1836, this time dependence was neglected and it was incorrectly assumed the surface temperature could be determined using average values for just the solar and IR flux terms. Physical reality was abandoned in favor of mathematical simplicity. In his 1896 paper Arrhenius stated:

III. Thermal Equilibrium on the Surface and in the Atmosphere of the Earth

All authors agree in the view that there prevails an equilibrium in the temperature of the earth and of its atmosphere.

Arrhenius 1896, p. 254

In 1967, Manabe and Wetherald set out to answer the following questions:

1) How long does it take to reach a state of thermal equilibrium when the atmosphere maintains a realistic distribution of relative humidity that is invariant with time?

2) What is the influence of various factors such as the solar constant, cloudiness, surface albedo and the distributions of various atmospheric absorbers on the equilibrium temperature of the atmosphere with a realistic distribution of relative humidity?

3) What is the equilibrium temperature of the earth’s surface corresponding to realistic values of these factors?

Manabe and Wetherald, 1967, p. 242

In 2008 Knutti and Hegerl stated:

When the radiation balance of the Earth is perturbed, the global surface temperature will warm and adjust to a new equilibrium state.

Knutti and Hegerl, 2008, p. 735

Manabe and Wetherald [1967] (MW67) copied Arrhenius and created the equilibrium climate fantasy land in which the climate modelers play their computer games with radiative forcings, feedbacks and a climate sensitivity to CO₂. This fantasy land is described in Chapter 7 of the Working Group 1 IPCC Climate Assessment Report [2021].

This chapter assesses the present state of knowledge of Earth’s energy budget, that is, the main flows of energy into and out of the Earth system, and how these energy flows govern the climate response to a radiative forcing. Changes in atmospheric composition and land use, like those caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and emissions of aerosols and their precursors, affect climate through perturbations to Earth’s top-of-atmosphere energy budget. The effective radiative forcings (ERFs) quantify these perturbations, including any consequent adjustment to the climate system (but excluding surface temperature response). How the climate system responds to a given forcing is determined by climate feedbacks associated with physical, biogeophysical and biogeochemical processes. These feedback processes are assessed, as are useful measures of global climate response, namely equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and the transient climate response (TCR).

There is no climate equilibrium state that can be perturbed by an increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO₂ or other greenhouse gases. In the time step integration algorithm used by Manabe and Wetherald in 1967, the change in temperature produced by a ‘CO₂ doubling’ during each time step is too small to measure in the normal diurnal and seasonal changes in surface temperature. The warming signal created by MW67 cannot accumulate in the real atmosphere. This is discussed in more detail in the post VPCP 27 A review of the 1967 paper by Manabe and Wetherald [VPCP27.MW67.Review]

Before considering the phase shifts in more detail, a brief review of time dependent energy transfer processes will be provided. Additional information is provided by Clark and Rörsch [2023] (CR23).

Climate Energy Transfer

The earth is an isolated planet that is heated by the absorption of short wave (SW) electromagnetic radiation from the sun and cooled by the emission of longwave IR (LWIR) radiation back to space. The earth’s climate has been sufficiently stable over several billion years to allow for the evolution of life into its present forms. This requires an approximate planetary energy balance between the absorbed solar flux and the outgoing LWIR radiation (OLR) returned to space so that the surface temperature over most of the planet remains within the relatively narrow range needed to sustain life. Unfortunately, this has led to the misconception that there is an exact energy balance between the absorbed solar flux and the OLR that controls the surface temperature.

The earth is also a rotating water planet with an atmosphere that has an IR radiation field. Approximately 71% of the surface area is ocean. At the surface, the downward LWIR flux from the lower troposphere interacts with the upward LWIR flux from the surface to establish an exchange energy. The net cooling LWIR flux is the difference between the upward and downward LWIR fluxes. Within the main spectral regions of the atmospheric IR absorption and emission bands, when the surface and surface air temperatures are similar, photons are exchanged without any significant transfer of heat. In order to dissipate the absorbed solar heat, the surface must warm up so that the excess heat is removed by moist convection (evapotranspiration). This requires a thermal and/or humidity gradient at the surface-air interface. The requirement for climate stability is set by the Second Law of Thermodynamics, not the First. There is no ‘magic thermostat’ at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) that controls the surface temperature. The surface gradients adjust as the temperatures change and this maintains the overall energy balance. Convection is also a mass transport process. It is coupled to both the gravitational field and the rotation (angular momentum) of the earth. As the warm air rises through the troposphere, it cools as it expands and internal energy is converted to gravitational potential energy. For dry air, the lapse rate, or change in temperature with altitude, is -9.8 °C km^-1. As moist air rises above the saturation level, water condenses to form clouds with the release of latent heat. This reduces the lapse rate. The US standard atmosphere uses an average lapse rate of -6.5 °C km^-1. The coupling of the convection to the rotation leads to the formation of the Hadley, Ferrel and polar cell convective structure, the trade winds, the mid latitude cyclones/anticyclones and the ocean gyre circulation (CR23). In addition, the troposphere functions as an open cycle heat engine that transports part of the absorbed solar heat from the surface to the middle and upper troposphere by moist convection. From here it is radiated back to space, mainly by LWIR emission from the water bands. The upward and downward LWIR flux terms are decoupled by molecular line broadening effects.

A change in surface temperature is produced by a change in the heat content or enthalpy of the surface reservoir or thin layer of ocean or land at the surface-air interface (CR23). There are four main, time dependent, interactive flux terms that are coupled to this reservoir. These are the absorbed solar flux, the net LWIR emission, the moist convection and the subsurface transport (precipitation and freeze/thaw effects are not included here). The net LWIR flux increases with decreasing humidity and decreases with increasing cloud cover. The convection depends on the temperature difference between the surface and the surface air layer. The energy transfer processes are different at the land-air and ocean-air interfaces and have to be considered separately. In addition, the ocean surface temperatures are coupled to the land surface temperatures by weather systems that form over the oceans and move overland.

Over the oceans, the surface is almost transparent to the solar flux. Approximately half of the flux is absorbed within the first meter layer and 90% is absorbed within the first 10 m layer [Clark, 2013]. The diurnal temperature rise at the surface is quite small, typically 2 °C or less. The dominant cooling term is the wind driven evaporation or latent heat flux. The LWIR flux is absorbed within the first 100 micron layer [Hale and Querry, 1973]. Here it is fully coupled to the wind driven evaporation or latent heat flux. The sensible heat flux term is usually small, less than 10 W m^-2. The cooling terms are fully coupled at the surface and should not be separated and analyzed independently of each other. The cooler water produced at the surface then sinks and is replaced by warmer water from below. This is a Rayleigh-Benard type of convective flow with columns of warmer and cooler water moving in opposite directions. It is not a simple diffusion process. The convective flow and therefore the evaporative cooling continue over the full 24 hour diurnal cycle. As the cooler water sinks, it carries the surface momentum to lower depths. This drives the ocean currents that form the ocean gyre circulation. Outside of the tropics there is a seasonal time delay or phase shift between the peak solar flux at solstice and the surface temperature response that may reach 6 to 8 weeks. In addition, there is no requirement for an exact flux balance between the solar heating and the surface cooling terms. There are natural variations or quasi-periodic oscillations in ocean surface temperatures that may extend to depths of 100 m or more. This also means that there is no exact planetary flux balance at TOA between the absorbed solar flux and the OLR.

Over land, all of the flux terms are absorbed by a thin surface layer. The surface temperature increases in the morning after sunrise as the solar flux is absorbed. This establishes a thermal gradient with both the cooler air above and the subsurface ground layers below. The surface-air gradient drives the evapotranspiration and the subsurface gradient conducts heat below the surface during the first part of the day after sunrise. Later in the day, as the surface cools, the subsurface gradient reverses and the stored heat is returned to the surface. As the land and air temperatures equalize in the evening, the convection stops and the surface cools more slowly by net LWIR emission. This convection transition temperature is reset each day by the local weather system passing through. Almost all of the absorbed solar heat is dissipated within the same diurnal cycle (CR23).

The surface or skin temperature is the temperature at the surface-air interface. The weather station temperature or meteorological surface air temperature (MSAT) is the temperature measured by a thermometer installed in a ventilated enclosure located for convenience near eye level, 1.5 to 2 m above the ground [Oke, 2016]. Historically in the US, the daily minimum and maximum MSATs were recorded using Six’s thermometer mounted in a white painted wooden enclosure (Stevenson screen or cotton region shelter). It is now recorded electronically using a smaller ‘beehive’ enclosure. The min and max MSAT are produced by different physical processes. The minimum MSAT is usually a measure of the surface air temperature of the local weather system passing through. The change in temperature or ΔT from min to max is determined by the mixing of the warm air rising from the solar heated surface with the cooler air at the level of the MSAT thermometer. The min and max readings are often averaged to give an ‘average daily temperature’. This has little physical meaning.

The Seasonal Ocean Phase Shift

Figure 1 shows the monthly ocean temperatures for 2018 at depths from 2.5 to 200 m for a 5° x 1° (latitude x longitude) strip at 10° intervals from 60° N to the equator, 0° N along the 20° longitude transect in the N. Atlantic Ocean. This extends from south of Iceland to the equator off the coast of Africa as shown on the location map. The data were downloaded from the Argo Marine Atlas [Argo, 2021]. For latitudes from 20° to 60° N, the data show a winter surface temperature minimum in March or April. Summer solar heating then produces a stable stratified thermal layer structure with a surface temperature peak in August or September. The peak temperatures increase from 10 °C at 60° N to 25 °C at 20° N. There is a time delay or phase shift of about 8 weeks after summer solstice. The phase shift increases and temperature rise decreases at lower depths. The subsurface thermal layer structure then collapses as the wind driven evaporative cooling in winter exceeds the solar heating. The heat stored and released during the course of a year may easily reach 1000 MJ m^-2. This is a major factor in stabilizing the earth’s climate. At low latitudes, 0° and 10° N, there is no obvious summer temperature peak. These locations are influenced by the S. Atlantic Equatorial Current. The cooler water from the Benguela Current that flows northwards along the west coast of Africa, changes direction and flows westwards towards S. America. For 0° N, the surface temperature increases from approximately 27 to 29 °C for the first five months of the year. It then decreases to approximately 24 °C over the next three months and gradually warms up during the rest of the year. The April peak is produced by the summer solar heating in the S. Hemisphere.

The Diurnal Ocean Phase Shift

Figure 2 shows selected TRITON buoy data for location 156° E, 0° lat. (equator) in the Pacific warm pool [TRITON, 2021]. Hourly average data are shown for July 1 to 15, 2010. Figure 2a shows the air temperature and the ocean temperatures at 1.5 and 25 m depth (SST 1.5 and SST 25). Figure 2b shows the wind speed and the solar flux. Over the period shown, the average air temperature was 301.2 K (28.2 °C), SST 1.5 was 301.8 K (28.8 °C) and SST 25 was 301.6 K (28.6 °C). Both the air and the SST 1.5 temperatures exhibit a diurnal variation. The maximum daily excursion was 1.5 K for the air temperature and 1 K for SST 1.5. The SST 1.5 data shows a strong dependence on the wind speed. The maximum increase in daily temperature of 1 K on day 10 occurred with the wind speed near 1 m s^-1. The minimum increase in temperature of 0.1 K occurred on day 14 when the wind speed was in the 6 to 7 m s^-1 range. These maxima and minima are indicated by the arrows in Figure 2. There was a gradual drift in SST 25, but there was no significant diurnal variation at these depths.

There was also a variable time or phase shift between the noon peak of the solar flux and the SST 1.5 diurnal peak. This is shown in Figure 3 for days 10 to 15. The approximate phase shift in hours and the total daily solar flux in MJ m^-2 day^-1 are shown for each of the 5 days. The phase shift decreases as the wind speed increases. This increases the surface evaporation and there is more downward convection of cooling water from the surface. It is also important to note that 1 to 2 MJ m^-2.day^-1 variations in the total daily solar flux have no observable effect on the SST 1.5 diurnal temperature changes. The increase in downward surface LWIR flux to the surface produced by an increase of 140 ppm in atmospheric CO₂ concentration is approximately 0.17 MJ m^-2.day^-1. This can have no measurable effect on ocean temperatures. It is simply absorbed within the first 100 micron ocean layer and dissipated as an insignificant part of the total surface cooling flux. It is also important to note that the absorbed solar flux is decoupled from the wind speed driven cooling flux. There is no ‘equilibrium average’ at the ocean surface on any time scale. The amount of heat stored in the ocean thermal reservoir depends on the accumulated net flux balance, including ocean transport effects.

The Diurnal Phase Shift Over Land

Historically in many countries, the maximum and minimum MSATs were recorded using Six’s thermometer. The diurnal phase shift was only recorded during specialized measurement programs. It was recorded in 1953 as part of the Great Plains Turbulence Field Program conducted in O’Neill, Nebraska [Letteau and Davidson, 1957]. Subsurface temperature data and the 2 m air temperature recorded for August 13-14, 1953 are shown in Figure 4. The phase shift for the surface (0.5 cm) temperature is indicated. The measurement site latitude and longitude are 42° 26’ N and 98° 32’ W. Local solar noon occurs approximately 30 minutes after CST noon. The minimum surface temperature of 18.7 °C was recorded at 6.30 am and the maximum surface temperature of 40.9 °C was recorded at 2.30 pm. At the end of the observation period at 2.30 am on August 14, the temperature was 20.6 °C. The temperature may be expected to continue to cool until after sunrise. The diurnal temperature rise decreased with increasing depth and the phase shift increased with depth. The diurnal temperature variations were not detectable at 80 cm depth. The surface and air temperatures equalized near 6.30 pm.

The parameters recorded during this test period also included humidity and solar, total and net flux data. The humidity (mb) and relative humidity (%) are shown in Figure 5. As the air temperature increased during the first part of the day after sunrise, the humidity as measured by the water vapor pressure increased from 14 to 20 mb. This may be attributed to increased evaporation from the solar heated surface. However, the relative humidity decreased from 70 to 30%, because the saturated water vapor pressure used to determine the relative humidity increased faster with the air temperature than the measured partial vapor pressure. The recorded flux data is summarized in Figure 6. The M&W assumption of a fixed RH is incorrect near the surface. The peak solar flux was 957 W m^-2. At night, the measured net flux is the difference between the upward LWIR flux emitted by the surface and the downward LWIR flux emitted by the lower troposphere to the surface. The average value was -59 W m^-2. A negative flux indicates a surface cooling. During the day, the net flux also includes the net solar flux (downward minus reflected solar flux). The total flux includes both the downward solar flux and the downward LWIR flux. There was insufficient data for a more detailed analysis.

The Seasonal Phase Shift Over Land

In addition to the diurnal phase shift, there is also a seasonal phase shift. The peak temperatures occur after the summer solstice. This may be investigated by using the 1981 to 2010 30 year daily climate averages for the O’Neill, Neb. weather station #256290 [WRCC, 2021]. The maximum and minimum daily temperatures, the 1σ standard deviations and the ΔT (T_max - T_min) values are shown in Figure 7. There is a phase shift of approximately 30 days between the peak solar flux at summer solstice, day 172 and the peak seasonal temperature response. In addition, the ΔT values remain within the approximate range 13.4 ±2 °C for the entire year while the temperature variation is ±10 °C. The change in temperature from one day to the next, ΔTn, for the maximum and minimum temperatures are shown in Figure 8. The day to day temperature changes are small, below 0.4 °C. The phase shift is indicated by the zero crossing point after the summer solstice. There are three features in Figure 7 that require further consideration. First, the 1σ standard deviations are quite large. Second, the variation in ΔT is smaller than the changes in the max and min temperatures. Third, the seasonal phase shift is not produced locally.

The 1σ standard deviation range in the daily average temperatures is from ±3.4 to ±8.7 °C. The larger values occur at the beginning and end of the year when the temperatures are lower (CR23). Convective cooling of the surface occurs during the day when the solar heated surface is warmer than the air temperature. Each evening there is a convective transition temperature at which the surface and surface air temperatures approximately equalize and the dominant cooling term becomes the net LWIR flux emitted into the LWIR transmission window. This transition temperature is reset each day by the local weather system passing through. The variation in transition temperature is similar to the variation in the minimum temperatures. The measured maximum and minimum temperatures and ΔT values from the 1953 O’Neill observation site weather station data are plotted in Figure 9 with the climate data from Figure 7 over the same time period. The differences from the climate means are plotted in Figure 10. The maximum difference is +8.8 °C for Sept 8.

The smaller variation in ΔT compared to the min and max temperatures shows that there is a control mechanism that regulates the daily temperature increase. The moist convection (evapotranspiration) or sensible and latent heat fluxes increase with the solar flux and the rate of surface cooling increases. The latent heat flux also depends on the available surface moisture. This is discussed in more detail in CR23.

The phase shift is produced by changes in the convective transition temperature related to the weather systems passing through. In many regions of the world, these weather systems are formed over the ocean and the bulk air temperature is influenced by the ocean temperature along the path of the weather system. The source of the seasonal phase shift is the ocean response to the solar flux. There are also longer term temperature fluctuations related to the ocean oscillations.

The Coupling of the Ocean and Land Surface Temperatures

The ocean to land coupling of the surface temperatures may be investigated by comparing Pacific Ocean surface temperatures off the coast of California to land surface temperatures measured at the Ameriflux ‘Grasslands’ monitoring site near Irvine, CA and the daily 1981-2010 climate record from the nearby Santa Ana weather station. This is discussed in more detail in CR23. Figure 11 shows the 2.5 m depth ocean temperatures for 2017 derived from Argo float data. The data are for rectangular areas centered at 35° and 45° N, 127.5° W. The angular block size is 2° latitude and 5° longitude. The Argo data consists of monthly averages. These were fit to 5th order polynomials that were used to generate the daily trends. In addition, the 30 year average MSAT minimum data for Santa Ana [WRCC, 2021] and the MSAT minimum data for the Grasslands site [CR23, Clark, 2013] are also shown. The seasonal phase shift and the temperature range are consistent with ocean temperatures near 45° N. The temperature spikes in the Grasslands data are produced by the transition from onshore ocean air flow to offshore flow. As the air flows from the inland desert plateau to the ocean it descends about 1 km in altitude and is warmed by air compression.

The seasonal phase shifts observed for Santa Ana are not limited to coastal weather stations. They are observed in weather stations across the continental US and in many other regions of the world. Figure 12a and 12b shows the 1981-2010 30 year daily Tmin and Tmax climate data for eight S. California weather stations [WRCC, 2021]. Los Angeles (LA) and Los Angeles Airport (LAX) are located near or at the coast. The maximum temperatures here are lower because of the influence of the ocean marine layer. The night time cooling is also less. Redlands (Rdl), Riverside (Rvsd) and San Bernardino (SnBno) are located approximately 80 km (50 miles) inland, Indio (Ino) and Mecca (Mca) are approximately 150 km (94 miles) inland and Blythe (Bly) is approximately 250 km (156 miles) inland near the Colorado River. The approximate phase shift is indicated. The ΔT temperature rise from min to max is shown in Figure 12c. These stay in a narrower range than the measured temperatures. The seasonal phase shifts are shown in Figure 12d. These vary from approximately 60 to 30 days. The values generally decrease with increasing distance from the coast. Figure 13 shows the 30 year daily 1981-2010 climate data, ΔT temperature rise and seasonal phase shifts for 11 US stations near 40° latitude.

In addition to the seasonal phase shift, longer term temperature changes related to ocean oscillations are also coupled to the weather station temperatures through the convection transition temperature. For California stations, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) can be detected and for UK stations it is the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). This is discussed in more detail in CR23.

The global temperature change record is an area weighted average of the weather station data after it has been extensively processed or ‘homogenized’ and the mean has been subtracted. When the climate anomaly record, such as the HadCRUT4 data set is evaluated, the dominant term is found to be the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation. The correlation coefficient between the two data sets is 0.8. This is illustrated in Figure 12a [AMO, 2022, HadCRUT4, 2022, Morice et al, 2012]. The AMO consists of a quasi-periodic oscillation superimposed on an underlying linear trend. A least squares fit to the data from 1900 gives a sinusoidal oscillation with an amplitude of 0.2 °C and a period of 61 years with a long term linear trend near 0.3 °C per century. The linear trend is attributed to the temperature recovery from the Maunder minimum or Little Ice Age [Akasofu, 2010]. Both the period and the slope may change with time. There is a 0.3 °C offset between the AMO and the HadCRUT data after 1970. This requires further investigation of the ‘homogenization’ process and bias effects related to changes in the number and location of the weather stations used to generate the HadCRUT averages [Andrews, 2017a, 2017b, 2017c, D’Aleo and Watts, 2010]. The influence of the AMO extends over large areas of N. America, Western Europe and parts of Africa. The weather systems that form over the oceans and move overland couple the ocean surface temperature to the weather station data through the diurnal convection transition temperature. The contributions of the other ocean oscillations to the global temperature anomaly are smaller. The IOD and the PDO are dipoles that tend to cancel and the ENSO is limited to a relatively small area of the tropical Pacific Ocean. However, small surface temperature variations in the tropical oceans have a major impact on ocean evaporation and rainfall. Figure 12b shows a tree ring construction of the AMO from 1567 [Gray, 2004, Gray.NOAA, 2004]. The modern instrument record is also indicated in green.

The role of the AMO in setting the surface air temperature has been misunderstood or ignored for a long time. The first person to claim a measurable warming from an increase in CO₂ concentration was Callendar in 1938. [Callendar, 1938]. The warming that he observed was from the 1910 to 1940 warming phase of the AMO not CO₂. This was coupled to the land-based weather stations through changes to the convection transition temperature. During the 1970s there was a ‘global cooling’ scare that was based on the cooling phase of the AMO from 1940 to 1970 [McFarlane, 2018, Peterson et al, 2008, Douglas, 1975, Bryson and Dittberner, 1976]. In their 1981 paper Hansen et al chose to ignore the 1940 AMO peak in their analysis of the effects of CO2 on the weather station record [Hansen, 1981]. Similarly, Jones et al conveniently overlooked the 1940 AMO peak when they started to ramp up the modern global warming scare in 1986 and 1988 [Jones et al, 1986, 1988]. The IPCC also ignored the AMO peak in its first assessment report in 1990 [IPCC FAR WG1 fig. 11 SPM p. 29] and it has continued to ignore it as shown in AR6 WG1 TS CS Box 1 fig. 1c p. 61 [2021]. This is illustrated in Figure 15. The AMO, the HadCRUT4 global data and the periods of record used are shown in Figure 15a. The AMO consists of a long period oscillation near 60 years superimposed on a linear temperature recovery from the Little Ice Age (LIA) [Akasofu, 2010]. The temperature records used by Callendar, Douglas, Jones et al, Hansen et al and IPCC 1990 and 2021are shown in Figures 15b through 15g. The Keeling curve showing the increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentration is also shown in Figures 15d through 15g [Keeling, 2023].

Figure 15: a) AMO anomaly and HadCRUT4 global temperature anomaly, aligned from 1860 to 1970, b) temperature anomaly for N. temperate stations from Callendar [1938], c) global cooling from Douglas [1975], d) global temperature anomaly from Jones et al, [1986] e) global temperature anomaly from Hansen et al, [1981], f) and g) global temperature anomaly from IPCC 1990 and IPCC 2021. The changes in CO₂ concentration (Keeling curve) are also shown in d) through g). The periods of record for the weather station data are also indicated.

Conclusions

The time delays or phase shifts between the peak solar flux and the surface temperature response are an important and long neglected part of the time dependent surface energy transfer processes that determine the surface temperature. The subsurface seasonal land temperature phase shift was described by Fourier in 1824 and 1827. Diurnal and seasonal phase shifts occur in both the ocean and land temperature records. Such phase shifts are clear evidence for a non-equilibrium thermal response to the solar flux. Starting with the work of Pouillet in 1836, this time dependence was neglected and replaced by an equilibrium average ‘climate’. It was assumed, incorrectly that the surface temperature could be determined using average values for just the solar and IR flux terms. Physical reality was abandoned in favor of mathematical simplicity.

Over land, the surface temperature is reset each day as the bulk air temperature of the local weather system changes the diurnal transition temperature. In many parts of the world, the prevailing weather systems are formed over the oceans and then move overland. This explains the observed coupling of the seasonal phase shift in the ocean surface temperature to the weather station record. On a longer time scale, the ocean oscillations may also be coupled to the weather station record. In particular, the 1940 AMO peak has conveniently been ignored in the global mean temperature record.

The equilibrium assumption is still the foundation of the fraudulent climate models in use today. When the time dependent surface temperature changes related to the diurnal and seasonal cycles are analyzed in more detail, it is found that there can be no ‘climate sensitivity’ to CO₂. This is discussed in more detail in CR26 and in the post VPCP30 The equilibrium climate fraud [VPCP30.ClimateFraud].. The changes in LWIR flux related to a ‘radiative forcing’ by greenhouse gases do not change the surface temperature of the earth. Nor can there be a ‘water vapor feedback’. This is a mathematical artifact created by the equilibrium assumption and the time step integration algorithm introduced in MW67.

Acknowledgement

This work was performed as independent research by the author. It was not supported by any grant awards and none of the work was conducted as a part of employment duties for any employer. The views expressed are those of the author. He hopes that you will agree with them.

References

Normally, the references given in an article of this nature would be almost exclusively to the peer reviewed literature, with limited references to websites that provide access to climate data. Unfortunately, climate science has been thoroughly corrupted by the global warming fraud. The peer review process has collapsed and been replaced by blatant cronyism. Many of the publications in ‘prestigious’ journals such as Nature, Science, PNAS and others that relate to climate modeling predictions of global warming are fraudulent and should never have been published. Consequently many of the important references given here are to website publications. This should not detract from the integrity of the information provided. Many of these website publications have received a more thorough review than they might have received through the traditional peer review process.

Akasofu, S.-I. (2010), “On the recovery from the Little Ice Age” Natural Science 2(11) pp. 1211-1224. [http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/ns.2010.211149] Akasofu

AMO (2022), [https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.long.mean.data] AMO

Andrews, R. (2017a), “Adjusting Measurements to Match the Models – Part 3: Lower Troposphere Satellite Temperatures” Energy Matters Sept 14. [http://euanmearns.com/adjusting-measurements-to-match-the-models-part-3-lower-troposphere-satellite-temperatures/#more-19464] Andrews.a

Andrews, R. (2017b), “Making the Measurements Match the Models – Part 2: Sea Surface Temperatures” Energy Matters Aug 2. [http://euanmearns.com/making-the-measurements-match-the-models-part-2-sea-surface-temperatures/] Andrews.b

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